USMCA Review
USMCA Review
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is a cornerstone of the trilateral trade relationship and has a lifespan of 16 years, lasting until 2036. However, according to its review clause (Article 34.7), on the sixth anniversary of its entry into force, a representative commission of the parties must meet to conduct a joint performance review.
The USMCA entered into force on July 1, 2020. Therefore, the final decision on the joint review of the agreement will be announced on July 1, 2026, when the three countries must confirm whether they wish to continue with it or not. Key points of the process include:
- The first periodic review (according to Article 34.7.2) will take place on July 1, 2026. During this review, the parties may choose to renew the agreement for another 16 years, extending it to July 1, 2042.
- However, if any of the three parties refuses to renew, the agreement will terminate on June 30, 2036 (as stipulated in the same article).
- After the 2026 review, if no renewal occurs, annual discussions will be held for up to ten years.
- During any of these annual reviews after 2026, the parties may still decide to renew the agreement for another 16-year period.
- The second periodic review would take place on July 1, 2032, following the same renewal or termination process.
Source: Dr. Luz María de la Mora at the forum "Towards the USMCA Review in 2026" organized by the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment, and Technology (COMCE).
Before the review, the United States conducts an internal process that includes:
- 270 days prior to the review date (by October 4, 2025): The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) must begin a period to receive public comments and hold at least one hearing. This process began on September 17.
- 180 days before the review date (by January 2, 2026): The USTR must deliver to the U.S. Congress a report containing its assessment of the agreement, recommendations for the review, and its position regarding the extension of the USMCA.
The purpose of the USMCA review is to assess the agreement’s performance, consider recommended actions by the parties, and determine the appropriate steps to keep the text relevant and up to date.
As the review approaches, the political landscapes of the three countries have been shaped by a changing international environment, growing protectionism, and increased investment from third countries in the region, all of which have altered the negotiation climate.
Mexico
Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner, accounting for 15.9% of total U.S. imports. In 2023, Mexican imports to the U.S. market surpassed China’s for the first time in two decades.
The Mexican government has taken an active role in coordinating preliminary work for the review. Its main priorities include automotive rules of origin, increasing exports with higher national content, deepening integration in regional supply chains, promoting domestic production of goods currently imported from Asia, and strengthening oversight of labor issues.
Mexico has also maintained a constructive dialogue with Donald Trump’s cabinet. Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard has held multiple meetings in Washington with his counterpart, Howard Lutnick, to negotiate tariffs and discuss migration and other issues on the bilateral agenda. These interactions have allowed informal conversations on the treaty to begin, laying common groundwork ahead of the formal review process.
So far, Mexico has made clear that its interest lies in preserving strategic cooperation with its trade partners. It has signaled that it will prioritize relations with the United States and Canada, showing willingness to address their concerns and continue the agreement with minimal changes. Secretary Ebrard has stated that Mexico’s goal is to eliminate as many obstacles and disputes as possible before the official review begins.
In that spirit, on September 9, with the aim of promoting import substitution and strengthening strategic industries, the Mexican Congress received a draft decree proposing reforms to various tariff items under the Law on General Import and Export Taxes. The initiative modifies more than 1,400 tariff items applicable to countries without trade agreements with Mexico, mainly affecting Asian nations such as South Korea, China, and Thailand. While the measure aims to strengthen Plan México, it also aligns with North American bloc objectives, reinforces regional content compliance, and prevents the triangulation of Chinese goods into the U.S. and Canadian markets.
Regarding the process, on October 1, the Ministry of Economy, supported by the Business Coordinating Council (CCE), formally began consultations with 30 key industrial sectors involved in North American trade. The goal is to create a comprehensive diagnostic report reflecting the priorities of each sector ahead of the 2026 review. Industrial associations, business chambers, and companies are actively participating.
Parallel forums are also being held across Mexico’s 32 states through Investment Promotion Committees to incorporate regional perspectives. Together, these efforts aim to ensure that Mexico is fully prepared for the first discussion round in January 2026, representing both national and sectoral priorities.
United States
The Donald Trump administration is expected to adopt a more aggressive stance toward the agreement. Its agenda focuses on strengthening industrial policy, limiting Chinese export influence, tightening regional content enforcement, advancing labor reforms, and pressuring Mexico and Canada for concessions on migration and security.
One major concern for the U.S. is that China could circumvent American tariffs by routing exports through Mexico and increasing investment in Mexican manufacturing under the USMCA’s duty-free provisions—essentially using the trade pact as a “back door” to access the U.S. market. Consequently, Washington may seek stricter rules of origin and trade provisions targeting Chinese exports and investments, both direct and indirect.
Additionally, issues such as the ban on genetically modified corn, the elimination of autonomous regulatory bodies, and judicial reforms in Mexico could be raised, as these actions may conflict with the agreement.
While Trump’s administration has been known for imposing high tariffs on its trade partners, Mexico and Canada have received relatively favorable treatment compared to other countries. This suggests recognition of the agreement’s value and of regional integration—potentially a positive sign ahead of the review. Nonetheless, continued trade cooperation and treaty stability are being conditioned on Mexico and Canada’s progress in other areas, such as security and migration. Substantial advancements in these areas would provide greater certainty regarding the treaty’s continuity.
Regarding the process, on September 17, the USTR published its Call for Comments on the performance of the USMCA and set November 17 as the date for a public hearing in Washington. In response, Mexico and Canada also began their consultation processes to align with the U.S. calendar, even though they are not legally required to do so.
Canada
In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s administration, which began in March 2025, has taken a cautious approach toward the USMCA review. He has stated that tariff issues must first be resolved before formal discussions begin and has even suggested prioritizing bilateral agreements with the United States.
In a bilateral context, Prime Minister Carney and President Claudia Sheinbaum presented a joint action plan establishing accountability mechanisms and quarterly ministerial meetings on energy, mining, artificial intelligence, security, and social welfare.
The Canadian government launched its public consultation process on September 20, 2025, with an open period for public input until November 3. The goal is to ensure that the USMCA remains aligned with national interests, supports economic growth, and benefits Canadian businesses.
Canada’s key priorities include the dispute settlement mechanism, expanding market access for dairy products, regulating artificial intelligence, imposing digital service taxes on companies such as Meta, Amazon, and Netflix, and applying tariffs to the automotive industry.
Amid divided opinions about the treaty’s future, the business community—led by the Business Council of Canada and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Mexico—has urged greater regional integration instead of protectionist policies.
Preparing for a smooth USMCA review in 2026 is critical for all three countries. For Mexico, it is vital to have the planning and tools necessary to face the process effectively, ensure compliance with commitments, and reaffirm its position as a reliable partner to the United States and Canada. Fundamentally, the review should not be used as an opportunity to reopen or renegotiate prior resolutions, as doing so would undermine the integrity of the agreed-upon ratification process.